A little, light UEFAnomics

(with doff of cap to my chum Stefan Szymanski and his co-author Simon Kuypers, the second edition of whose fascinating book Soccernomics is just hitting the book stands)

With the Euros now in full swing, much media emphasis has been placed on the cultural differences of the various competing nations.  With justification, there has been much concern placed on racism.  The investigative and selective Panorama programme highlighted this, although a similar programme might have been made about England by Polish or Ukrainian broadcasters, to be met with howls of indignation in England.  Clearly there is an issue here, but the scale of the issue is very difficult to gauge, especially from the UK.  It’s not this issue that I am looking at though, but at another ‘cultural’ one.  Having spent some of my early years living and working in Central Europe, and having made work visits to Eastern Europe in the period leading up to the fall of communism and subsequently – last week I was in Bucharest, and I’m currently in St Petersburg – I’ve found myself wondering whether Eastern Europe had ‘caught up’ with Western Europe in footballing terms.  If the emergence of democracy had resulted in improved social conditions, such as in the areas of education, disposable income, access to sports facilities, etc., now being on a par with Western Europe, this should be reflected in the qualifiers for Euro 2012, and in their FIFA rankings as an indicator of form leading up to the Euros.

Country	FIFA ranking (July 2012)	FIFA points (July 2012)	Qualified?
Spain	1	1456	Y
Germany	3	1288	Y
Netherlands	4	1234	Y
England	6	1185	Y
Croatia	8	1053	Y
Denmark	9	1019	Y
Portugal	10	996	Y
Italy	12	977	Y
Russia	13	975	Y
France	14	964	Y
Greece	15	953	Y
Sweden	17	910	Y
Republic of Ireland	18	907	Y
Switzerland	21	868
Norway	26	787
Czech Republic	27	771	Y
Bosnia-Herzegovina	29	756
Slovenia	30	742
Hungary	31	735
Turkey	33	732
Serbia	34	725
Wales	38	658
Slovakia	39	649
Scotland	41	611
Montenegro	50	581
Armenia	51	579
Ukraine	52	572	Y(H)
Romania	52	572
Belgium	54	564
Estonia	57	528
Austria	58	524
Poland	62	518	Y(H)
Belarus	69	497
Finland	75	464
Latvia	76	459
Albania	79	451
Israel	81	427
Lithuania	88	380
Bulgaria	90	373
Georgia	95	359
Macedonia	101	338
Northern Ireland	103	336
Azerbaijan	112	300
Luxembourg	121	283
Faroe Islands	122	279
Cyprus	125	266
Iceland	131	248
Moldova	140	212
Kazakhstan	141	209
Malta	147	195
Liechtenstein	148	177
Andorra	199	15
San Marino	206	0

[Y = Yes; Y(H) = Yes, as host]

The first conclusions that one must come to are that FIFA points correlate pretty strongly with qualification for Euro 2012 (which is hardly surprising as the qualifying games are included in the FIFA points), and that Poland and Ukraine were unlikely to have qualified had they not been the co-hosts.  The Czech Republic were the ‘tail-end Charlies’ in qualifying, and Switzerland, and to a lesser extent Norway, must feel disappointed at not qualifying given their recent form.

The first stage of the Euros, in its round robin format, should also show some correspondence with form (the knock-out stage probably less so).  The following table is sorted by points achieved in the first round at the Euros.

Country	FIFA ranking (July 2012)	FIFA points (July 2012)	Qualified?	First round points
Germany	3	1288	Y	9
Spain	1	1456	Y	7
England	6	1185	Y	7
Portugal	10	996	Y	6
Czech Republic	27	771	Y	6
Italy	12	977	Y	5
Croatia	8	1053	Y	4
Russia	13	975	Y	4
France	14	964	Y	4
Greece	15	953	Y	4
Denmark	9	1019	Y	3
Sweden	17	910	Y	3
Ukraine	52	572	Y(H)	3
Poland	62	518	Y(H)	2
Netherlands	4	1234	Y	0
Republic of Ireland	18	907	Y	0

Netherlands fans have the most right to feel disappointed at their team failing to progress, those of the Czech Republic the most elated.

The first difficulty in setting about looking at the relative strengths of different blocks of countries arises with the fact that the ‘E’ in UEFA is not quite the Europe we learned about in school.  As with the Eurovision Song Contest, the boundaries of Europe have been stretched.  While it may be obvious that UEFA includes Ukraine, it is perhaps less obvious that UEFAland actually stretches as far as the border between Kazakhstan and China.

I have divided the countries into the following blocks: the old Western Europe (WE); the old Eastern Europe (EE); the old Soviet Union (SB); the old Yugoslavia (Yu), which always maintained a position on non-alliance and was a country which always allowed its players to work for Western European clubs; and the others (Oth) who do not fit into the main categories – Israel and Turkey.

To add the ‘UEFAnomics’ dimension, I added a column showing the population of each country based on latest actuals or estimates, and, to allow for size, a column showing the number of FIFA points per million people.  The latter is, of course, a very crude indicator, and does not allow for the anomalies at the ends of the spectrum – the ‘minnows’, where the random talent of individuals has a much stronger relevance to success, and the ‘giants’, where the sheer size of the country makes it perhaps difficult to identify all individual players’ talents.  I’ll make the same disclaimer that Peter Snow used to make for the famous Swingometer – “Remember, it’s just for fun”.

Country	FIFA ranking (July 2012)	FIFA points (July 2012)	Qualified?	First round points	Population	Points / 000,000s of Population	Block
Faroe Islands	122	279			49,267	56,630	WE
Liechtenstein	148	177			36,010	49,153	WE
Montenegro	50	581			625,266	9,292	Yu
Iceland	131	248			320,060	7,749	WE
Luxembourg	121	283			509,074	5,559	WE
Malta	147	195			452,515	4,309	WE
Estonia	57	528			1,340,194	3,940	SB
Slovenia	30	742			2,050,189	3,619	Yu
Cyprus	125	266			838,897	3,171	WE
Croatia	8	1053	Y	4	4,290,612	2,454	Yu
Wales	38	658			3,006,400	2,189	WE
Latvia	76	459			2,217,053	2,070	SB
Republic of Ireland	18	907	Y	0	4,588,252	1,977	WE
Bosnia-Herzegovina	29	756			3,839,737	1,969	Yu
Northern Ireland	103	336			1,799,392	1,867	WE
Denmark	9	1019	Y	3	5,543,453	1,838	WE
Andorra	199	15			84,082	1,784	WE
Armenia	51	579			3,262,200	1,775	SB
Macedonia	101	338			2,055,004	1,645	Yu
Albania	79	451			2,831,741	1,593	EE
Norway	26	787			4,985,870	1,578	WE
Lithuania	88	380			3,187,176	1,192	SB
Slovakia	39	649			5,445,324	1,192	EE
Scotland	41	611			5,254,800	1,163	WE
Switzerland	21	868			7,952,600	1,091	WE
Serbia	34	725			7,120,666	1,018	Yu
Sweden	17	910	Y	3	9,415,295	967	WE
Portugal	10	996	Y	6	10,578,776	942	WE
Finland	75	464			5,404,956	858	WE
Greece	15	953	Y	4	11,305,118	843	WE
Georgia	95	359			4,469,200	803	SB
Hungary	31	735			10,014,324	734	EE
Netherlands	4	1234	Y	0	16,847,007	732	WE
Czech Republic	27	771	Y	6	10,562,214	730	EE
Austria	58	524			8,414,638	623	WE
Moldova	140	212			3,559,500	596	SB
Israel	81	427			7,869,900	543	Oth
Belarus	69	497			9,503,807	523	SB
Belgium	54	564			11,007,020	512	WE
Bulgaria	90	373			7,364,570	506	EE
Azerbaijan	112	300			9,165,000	327	SB
Spain	1	1456	Y	7	46,030,109	316	WE
Romania	52	572			19,042,936	300	EE
England	6	1185	Y	7	52,234,000	227	WE
Italy	12	977	Y	5	60,681,514	161	WE
Germany	3	1288	Y	9	81,799,600	157	WE
France	14	964	Y	4	65350000	148	WE
Poland	62	518	Y(H)	2	38,186,860	136	EE
Kazakhstan	141	209			16,600,000	126	SB
Ukraine	52	572	Y(H)	3	45,888,000	125	SB
Turkey	33	732			74,724,269	98	Oth
Russia	13	975	Y	4	143,030,106	68	SB
San Marino	206	0			31,887	0	WE

Can the Faroe Islanders really be the top achievers?  Well, certainly they are no longer the minnows who could be relied on to roll over and be thrashed, as Scotland infamously discovered.

I find it particularly interesting that the top four achievers who qualified were Croatia, the Republic of Ireland, Denmark and Sweden – all deserve credit for qualifying for the Euros and commiserations for not making it beyond the first round.  Russia, on the other hand, emerge as massive underachievers.

Finally, to return to my original query, I’ve sorted the table by country block (putting Israel and Turkey to one side).

Western Europe:

Country	FIFA ranking (July 2012)	FIFA points (July 2012)	Qualified?	First round points	Population	Points / 000,000s of Population
Faroe Islands	122	279			49,267	56,630
Liechtenstein	148	177			36,010	49,153
Iceland	131	248			320,060	7,749
Luxembourg	121	283			509,074	5,559
Malta	147	195			452,515	4,309
Cyprus	125	266			838,897	3,171
Wales	38	658			3,006,400	2,189
Republic of Ireland	18	907	Y	0	4,588,252	1,977
Northern Ireland	103	336			1,799,392	1,867
Denmark	9	1019	Y	3	5,543,453	1,838
Andorra	199	15			84,082	1,784
Norway	26	787			4,985,870	1,578
Scotland	41	611			5,254,800	1,163
Switzerland	21	868			7,952,600	1,091
Sweden	17	910	Y	3	9,415,295	967
Portugal	10	996	Y	6	10,578,776	942
Finland	75	464			5,404,956	858
Greece	15	953	Y	4	11,305,118	843
Netherlands	4	1234	Y	0	16,847,007	732
Austria	58	524			8,414,638	623
Belgium	54	564			11,007,020	512
Spain	1	1456	Y	7	46,030,109	316
England	6	1185	Y	7	52,234,000	227
Italy	12	977	Y	5	60,681,514	161
Germany	3	1288	Y	9	81,799,600	157
France	14	964	Y	4	65,350,000	148
San Marino	206	0			31,887	0

(Average population of country in Western European block: 15,352,615)

Eastern Europe:

Country	FIFA ranking (July 2012)	FIFA points (July 2012)	Qualified?	First round points	Population	Points / 000,000s of Population
Albania	79	451			2,831,741	1,593
Slovakia	39	649			5,445,324	1,192
Hungary	31	735			10,014,324	734
Czech Republic	27	771	Y	6	10,562,214	730
Bulgaria	90	373			7,364,570	506
Romania	52	572			19,042,936	300
Poland	62	518	Y(H)	2	38,186,860	136

Average population of country in Eastern European block: 13,349,710

Former Soviet block:

Country	FIFA ranking (July 2012)	FIFA points (July 2012)	Qualified?	First round points	Population	Points / 000,000s of Population
Estonia	57	528			1,340,194	3,940
Latvia	76	459			2,217,053	2,070
Armenia	51	579			3,262,200	1,775
Lithuania	88	380			3,187,176	1,192
Georgia	95	359			4,469,200	803
Moldova	140	212			3,559,500	596
Belarus	69	497			9,503,807	523
Azerbaijan	112	300			9,165,000	327
Kazakhstan	141	209			16,600,000	126
Ukraine	52	572	Y(H)	3	45,888,000	125
Russia	13	975	Y	4	143,030,106	68

(Average population of country in former Soviet block: 22,020,203; average population of country in former Soviet block excluding Russia: 9,919,203)

Former Yugoslavia:

Country	FIFA ranking (July 2012)	FIFA points (July 2012)	Qualified?	First round points	Population	Points / 000,000s of Population
Montenegro	50	581			625,266	9,292
Slovenia	30	742			2,050,189	3,619
Croatia	8	1053	Y	4	4,290,612	2,454
Bosnia-Herzegovina	29	756			3,839,737	1,969
Macedonia	101	338			2,055,004	1,645
Serbia	34	725			7,120,666	1,018

(Average population of country in former Yugoslav block: 3,330,246)

The results are not entirely surprising.  With the exceptions of Croatia, the Czech Republic and Russia, all the teams who made it to the Euros through competition were from Western Europe.

Is this an indication that Eastern Europe has not caught up with Western Europe over the last twenty years?  Well, possibly, but there are other reasons, notably the issue of the population of each country.  The next table ranks countries by population.

Country	FIFA ranking (July 2012)	FIFA points (July 2012)	Qualified?	First round points	Population	Points / 000,000s of Population	Block
Russia	13	975	Y	4	143,030,106	68	SB
Germany	3	1288	Y	9	81,799,600	157	WE
Turkey	33	732			74,724,269	98	Oth
France	14	964	Y	4	65350000	148	WE
Italy	12	977	Y	5	60,681,514	161	WE
England	6	1185	Y	7	52,234,000	227	WE
Spain	1	1456	Y	7	46,030,109	316	WE
Ukraine	52	572	Y(H)	3	45,888,000	125	SB
Poland	62	518	Y(H)	2	38,186,860	136	EE
Romania	52	572			19,042,936	300	EE
Netherlands	4	1234	Y	0	16,847,007	732	WE
Kazakhstan	141	209			16,600,000	126	SB
Greece	15	953	Y	4	11,305,118	843	WE
Belgium	54	564			11,007,020	512	WE
Portugal	10	996	Y	6	10,578,776	942	WE
Czech Republic	27	771	Y	6	10,562,214	730	EE

Of the 16 largest countries in Euroland, only Poland (at no. 9 in population), Romania (no.10) and the Czech Republic (no.16) appear in the list, together with Russia (no.1), Ukraine (no.8) and Kazakhstan (no.12) from the old Soviet block, the remainder consisting of nine Western European countries plus Turkey.  Could it be that Eastern Europe suffers in football success from consisting of smaller countries?

Of the 16 largest countries in Euroland, only Poland (at no. 9 in population), Romania (no.10) and the Czech Republic (no.16) appear in the list, together with Russia (no.1), Ukraine (no.8) and Kazakhstan (no.12) from the old Soviet block, the remainder consisting of nine Western European countries plus Turkey.  Could it be that Eastern Europe suffers in football success from consisting of smaller countries?  Consider which countries have actually reached the finals:

Country	Winners	Runners-up	Finalists
Germany	3	3	6
Soviet Union	1	3	4
Spain	2	1	3
Czech Republic	1	1	2
France	2	–	2
Italy	1	1	2
Denmark	1	–	1
Greece	1	–	1
Netherlands	1	–	1
Yugoslavia	–	2	2
Belgium	–	1	1
Portugal	–	1	1

[Yugoslavia were losing finalists in 1960 and 1968.  A reconstituted Yugoslavia today would have a combined population today of 19,981,474, ranking it as the tenth largest UEFA country by population.]

These musings, of course, prove nothing, but they do suggest that being big helps, and, if you are an Eastern European country, you are generally a bit disadvantaged in this respect.  This has implications for Euro 2016 when the number of countries qualifying will increase from 16 to 24.  Eastern European countries will be no better placed to win, but statistically we should expect to see them make up a greater percentage of the qualifying countries, which will be good for them in terms of exposure and international experience.

As for this evening, well, using UEFA points as a predictor of form, England seem to have the edge.  Maybe I shouldn’t tempt providence though, and, in any case, form is a worse predictor in the knockout stages than in the first round because it is being applied to a single game rather than three games

[Apologies for way the tables appear – WordPress.com is not very helpful at formating tables prepared in Word]